Real-Time Coverage Briefing
November 5 • United States
2024 US Presidential Election
Background
Analysis
Physical Security Analysis
There are expected to be approximately 100,000 polling places across the country. Polling stations and voting centers are often easily-accessible and soft-target buildings like schools, universities, public buildings, churches, senior living facilities, fire stations and community centers temporarily serving as polling centers. For more detail on the specific location of polling stations see here.
Polling places are particularly vulnerable to protests and armed voter intimidation by self-styled militia groups, as seen during the 2020 election, where armed individuals near polling centers surged. Seventeen states and Washington, DC, prohibit firearms at polling sites, while in other states open and concealed carry laws may restrict or permit firearms in certain locations that also serve as polling places. This election, polling places are increasing security to safeguard both workers and the electoral process. Measures include SWAT deployments, bulletproof glass and panic buttons. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has released a physical security checklist for election infrastructure, covering pre-election and Election Day procedures, and is deploying advisors to assess election facility safety nationwide.
This year’s swing states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Swing states are electorally significant and today, demonstrate very narrow margins, increasing the likelihood of contested results and recounts. All swing states allow open carry firearms, some with or without a permit increasing the risk of violence in a potential election legitimacy scenario. In 2020, these states experienced higher levels of demonstrations and unlawful paramilitary activity, with Arizona and Pennsylvania seeing protests at government buildings following the election results. Many of these states are implementing enhanced security measures, such as Arizona, which is preparing for potential election-related attacks.
Samdesk has also detected a rise in unfounded threats or hoaxes impacting public services and schools. These threats often involve emailed or telephoned bomb threats, shooting threats or suspicious packages. Although usually benign, threats like this cause panic and are highly disruptive to local operations. During a presidential debate, last month, Trump amplified misinformation accusing the Springfield Haitian community of "abducting and eating pets." This misinformation spurred over 30 bomb threats in the city in the weeks following the debate. Ohio is not alone in facing such threats, as similar incidents have surged nationwide.
This election has seen two failed assassination attempts on Trump. In July, Trump was shot while speaking at a rally in Pennsylvania in an attack that killed a member of the audience. In September, Trump was once again the subject of an assassination attempt at his Florida golf course, although the perpetrator was apprehended before he fired his rifle. Both incidents stemmed from lone actors and influenced the unanimous passage of a bill to enhance security for presidential candidates. Trump’s campaign is understood to have requested military aircraft and vehicles in the run-up to the election as added protection for the Republican candidate amidst fear of “Iranian-backed plots” to assassinate Trump. Former US officials have suggested that it would be “extraordinary” for the Secret Service to approve such a request.
In addition to rallies or organized events, politicians’ residences are also targets, as seen in the 2020 foiled plot to kidnap Michigan’s governor and the 2022 attack on former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband after an assailant sought to kidnap her.
Election officials in over 15 states have received suspicious packages, including those in Nebraska, Wyoming and Oklahoma, with some containing unidentified substances. This month, a bomb threat was reported near a rally of Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz in Pennsylvania, although police later confirmed it was unfounded. Earlier this year, the DNC also faced bomb threats targeting nearby hotels. Although these threats were unfounded, precautionary measures had to be taken, including evacuations and temporary closures, affecting the hotel’s business operations and the public.
Over 320 threat and harassment events had already been reported against local officials by July this year, up 30% on the same period of 2023, with the Justice Department admitting that its options are limited.
Cybersecurity
Disinformation + Influence Operations
Trump remarks in Aurora, Colorado
Trump rally in Coachella, California
Vance remarks in Johnstown, Pennsylvania
OUT for Harris-Waltz in Atlanta, Georgia
Trump rally in Prescott Valley, Arizona
White Lives Matter Day of Action, Worldwide
Kamala Parade in Duluth, Georgia
Trump at NRA in Savannah, Georgia CANCELLED
Trump rally in Duluth, Georgia
2024 Annual IMF in Washington, DC
“Aryan Fest” Aryan Freedom Network in Georgia
Trump rally at Madison Square Gardens, New York
Annual Anonymous Million Mask March, Worldwide