2025 Passover

Background

The annual Jewish celebration of Passover will begin on Saturday, April 12, and continues through the evening of Sunday, April 20. As a result of Israel’s response to the Hamas 2023 attacks, there has been a global increase in protests and antisemitic violence. Over the last two years, instances of antisemitic behaviour have increased by 340%, and is expected to increase in 2025.

Last year’s Passover celebrations saw increased security around Jewish centres, which will be reestablished for this year. Tensions may be heightened given Israel’s announcement on March 18 to resume its military operations in Gaza, including its occupation of the Netzarim Corridor and military actions in Rafah.

Given the cultural significance of Passover and a global rise in antisemitic behavior, samdesk analysts have produced the following briefing outlining possible threats to significant locations and communities.

Terrorism: Attacks targeting Jewish communities or places of significance during Passover are possible

Antisemitic crime: Hate crimes and harassment are probable. Swatting calls and/or hoax bomb threats targeting Jewish institutions are likely

Protests: Global pro-Palestinian protests are probable but unlikely to be violent

At risk locations: Jewish or Israeli institutions, including synagogues, schools, Jewish community centers, Kosher restaurants and grocery stores, Jewish-owned commercial properties, and businesses such as hotels and bars. Large gatherings during Passover are also likely targets.

Terrorism: Attacks targeting Jewish communities or places of significance during Passover are possible

Antisemitic crime: Hate crimes and harassment are probable. Swatting calls and/or hoax bomb threats targeting Jewish institutions are likely

Protests: Global pro-Palestinian protests are probable but unlikely to be violent

Analysis

Terrorism

The threat of terrorist attacks occurring during Passover is possible. Passover’s religious significance poses a widespread threat to Jewish communities and an attractive target for violent extremists. Perpetrators may target “soft targets” such as crowds in public spaces or Jewish places of significance, including synagogues and Jewish-owned businesses, schools or grocery stores. In April 2024, FBI Director Christopher Wray stated the “Bureau remain[s] particularly concerned that lone actors could target large gatherings, high-profile events, or symbolic or religious locations for violence. Particularly a concern, of course, as we look to the start of Passover.”

Threat Actors

The National Security Council of Israel identified several threat actors aiming to conduct attacks against Israeli citizens and Jews globally during Passover. Similar actors have been identified in the Terrorism and Situation Trend Report authored by Europol, which indicates that the Hamas attack and subsequent Israeli military response resulted in the confluence of supporters of jihadist, violent extremist, right-wing, and left-wing anarchist terrorist groups alike. Jihadist groups began calling for attacks on Jewish and Israeli targets while right-wing groups incited their supporters to ‘annihilate the Jewish State’, with some even calling for a “White jihad now.” Social media compounded the issue, with accelerationist channels amplifying Islamic State and al-Qaeda content, which called for violence against Jewish targets.

The following is a list of notable threat actors who may conduct attacks during Passover.

Iran

Iranian-sanctioned attacks are possible, trending towards unlikely

In 2024, state-sponsored attacks from the Iranian regime, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), were the leading threat in conducting terrorist attacks by proxy on Israeli citizens and Jews globally. The IRGC conducts a myriad of hostile actions in Western countries, with attack methodologies ranging from assassinations, abductions, cyber-attacks, intimidation campaigns, or espionage. While state-sponsored attack plots against Jewish targets are frequently uncovered, these attacks have not increased during religious holidays in the past.

Attack plots have been disrupted since 2018, and efforts have reportedly intensified since the onset of the conflict in Gaza. In March 2023, Greek authorities arrested two Pakistani men recruited by operators in Iran for plotting to attack a Jewish Center and a Kosher restaurant in downtown Athens. In November 2023, a joint operation by Israel and Cyprus foiled an Iranian Revolutionary Guard attack plot that targeted Israeli businessmen in Nicosia. Whilst the capabilities and intent of the Iranian regime are high, their expectancy of success is low due to plots being successfully uncovered by authorities.

Iranian-sanctioned attacks are possible, trending towards unlikely

Islamic State

Escalation of the ongoing conflict in Gaza has increased the likelihood of an attack occurring, however there is rarely a relationship to attack planning and Passover, therefore Islamic State attacks are assessed as possible

Lone actors affiliated with the Islamic State have also attempted attacks against synagogues and Jews. Following the 2023 Hamas attack, several Islamic State-linked media channels encouraged global attacks on synagogues and “Jewish economic interests.” Attack methodologies are varied and can range from improvised explosive devices, firearms, bladed weapons, or vehicle ramming. Lone actors often conduct unsophisticated attacks with minimal impact as they lack comprehensive training and resources. While attacks are common, they do not often coincide with Jewish religious holidays.

In April 2016, an Islamist extremist was arrested for plotting to conduct an improvised explosive device attack at the Aventura Turnberry Jewish Center in Aventura, Florida, during Passover. He noted that a Jewish holiday would be a good time to carry out the bombing. Since then, attacks have focused on Jewish synagogues and individuals rather than holidays. In February 2025, a teenager was arrested for planning an attack against the Israeli embassy in Berlin. Two days after his arrest, a search operation of his residence revealed he had stored explosives in preparation for the attack.
In March 2024, Russian authorities foiled an ISIS-Khorasan firearms attack plot targeting a synagogue in Moscow.
In the same month, a teenager pledged allegiance to Islamic State and conducted a bladed weapon attack, injuring one Jewish man in Zurich, Switzerland.
In September 2024, a man was arrested in Quebec, Canada, for attempting to travel to New York and conduct a firearms attack on a Jewish Center on behalf of Islamic State.

Extremist Groups

Extremist attacks by groups or lone actors are possible

Extremist groups continue to be a threat to the Jewish community, and this threat is particularly heightened during religious holidays. Attacks typically involve the use of firearms to conduct mass shootings, which are often more accessible in the US.

In 2023, a far-right extremist was arrested for a mass shooting plot that targeted Congregation Shaarey Zedek in East Lansing, Michigan. Additionally, several extremist plots to attack synagogues and Jewish facilities were disrupted in 2020. During Passover in April 2019, a far-right extremist conducted a firearms attack at the Chabad of Poway synagogue in California, killing one and injuring three others. A similar attack occurred in October 2019, when a synagogue in Germany was targeted in a firearms attack killing two people and injuring others during Yom Kippur.

Hamas

Attacks by Hamas operatives are possible

Attack plots from Hamas operatives have also been disrupted. In December 2023, seven people were arrested for plotting to attack Jewish sites in Denmark, Germany, and Sweden. Due to the lack of successful attacks in North America and Europe, it is unlikely that Hamas operatives will conduct an attack in these regions during Passover.

Attacks may be conducted in Jewish and Israeli institutions, including synagogues, Jewish community centres, Kosher restaurants and grocery stores, Jewish-owned commercial properties, and institutions such as hotels and bars. Large gatherings during Passover are also likely targets.

OSINT Observations

See here for an OSINT assessment of online rhetoric

Disclaimer: This document contains sensitive content, including discussions of violence and terrorism towards the Jewish community, which are included for accuracy and situational awareness.

Antisemitic Crime

Hate crimes and harassment are probable. Swatting calls and/or hoax bomb threats targeting Jewish institutions are likely

Jewish institutions have increasingly been the target of hoax bomb threats and swatting campaigns. These are aimed at disrupting operations, resulting in financial losses and intimidation tactics. Last year, Jewish institutions across Canada were the target of a mass email bomb threat. The threat targeted approximately 125 different institutions and was later deemed to be a hoax. A similar threat was sent to 100 shopping centers and hospitals in India on the same day. Days before the anniversary of the 2023 Hamas attacks, New York Police were made aware of bomb threats made to several New York synagogues, the threats were deemed to be non-credible. However, they were made in advance of the Jewish High Holy Days and resulted in an increased police presence throughout New York. In December 2023, the Secure Community Network reported that more than 400 Jewish institutions were the target of false bomb threats and swatting over the course of one weekend. In recognition of the increase in antisemitic crime, the NYPD will be increasing its patrols around synagogues with uniformed officers stationed at dedicated places of worship.

Based on information obtained from the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), there have been a recorded 5,119 incidents of antisemitism in the US from 2024 to the present day. Many of these incidents have occurred in New York City, New York, Los Angeles, California, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The UK has also seen an increase in antisemitic incidents, with 2023 and 2024 reported as being the years that have seen the most recorded instances of antisemitism.

A similar trend was observed in Canada. 900 hate crimes against Jews were reported to police in 2023, representing an increase of 71% from 2022, according to information from Statistics Canada. A 2023 Toronto Police Service report notes that hate crimes against Jewish people represented the highest proportion of all hate crimes recorded that year, at 36%. Since October 7, 2023, there has been a 670% increase in antisemitic incidents in Canada, with the largest portion of threatening incidents occurring in Toronto.

The American Bar Association partially attributes the rise of antisemitic incidents to the proliferation of “online antisemitism,” including harmful narratives and hate speech targeting Jewish people. Analysts identified numerous examples of online antisemitism in recent days.

Protests

Pro-Palestinian protests are probable during Passover but violence is unlikely.

Pro-Palestine demonstrations continue to take place globally and frequently amid the re-escalation of the conflict in Gaza. These demonstrations prompt varying degrees of disruption, and several US government officials have postponed engagements, citing security concerns over protests.

Notably, in 2024, encampment-style student protests in universities coincided with Passover. In the US, while some protests were peaceful, many demonstrations became violent and saw instances of riots, clashes with authorities, vandalism, lockdowns, and barricades, resulting in students being forcibly removed and arrested. These protests were organized by groups like Students for Justice in Palestine, Palestinian Youth Movement, Jewish Voice for Peace, IfNotNow, and Young Democratic Socialists of America. Jewish students were also verbally assaulted and harassed, resulting in them undertaking additional security measures.

President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to combat antisemitism during these protests, which recommended higher education institutions proactively “monitor and report activities by student aliens and staff.” The administration has stated that international students joining the pro-Palestine protests on college campuses will have their visas revoked and face deportation. Trump has also threatened to expel or arrest Americans participating in “illegal” protests, depending on the crime, and claimed to stop federal funding for institutions that allow these demonstrations to take place. Although it is unclear whether these restrictions will be enforced under the First Amendment right to free speech and assembly, violence or escalation is unlikely.