Ethiopia–Eritrea Rising Tensions in Tigray

Ethiopia has initiated large-scale troop deployments into the Tigray region and along its northeastern border with Eritrea amid renewed hostilities and escalating political rhetoric. Reports indicate mechanized units mobilizing, civilian evacuations, and fresh accusations that Eritrea is supporting armed groups inside Ethiopian territory.

The current tensions follow the fragile post-2022 peace environment that ended the Tigray civil war. Disputes over border control, alleged rebel support, and Ethiopia’s strategic ambitions regarding Red Sea access have reintroduced volatility into an already fragile regional landscape. Regional dynamics — including Sudan’s ongoing conflict and shifting Gulf alliances further complicate the operating environment.

While both governments have reasons to avoid full-scale war, military positioning, hardened rhetoric, and reported force concentrations increase the likelihood of interstate escalation in the coming weeks. A renewed conflict would carry significant humanitarian, geopolitical, and infrastructure implications across the Horn of Africa.

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